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== How did we do on our todo list? ==

* Laura
** was going to be looking at regressions using a "tilted" axes of latitude and longitude.
** [http://www.norsemathology.org/longa/research/MacKay/data/DatesofArrival9Regions.csv produced the "final" data set of FATs]

* Madison
** was going to be continuing her GIS work and research of currents, winds, soils, etc.
** incorporate latitude and longitude lines into maps

* Andy
** was going to be continuing his modelling of the Soil Temperature, using Yarmouth and all five species simultaneously.
** [http://www.norsemathology.org/longa/research/MacKay/data/climate/yarmouth/2016-08-18%2001-37-37.png soil temps] by species. These are the "soil temperatures", from the model (but they need to be scaled and shifted vertically) for each species, across the 23 years. 
** [http://www.norsemathology.org/longa/research/MacKay/data/climate/yarmouth/2016-08-18%2001-45-31.png soil (blue) and air (red) temps]
** Model: (0.5568958001646854 0.6193888658520907 1.5615818104233525 0.7657654745335524 1.075381065656607 2.5225520512386637 -24.824397478407082)
*** from [http://www.norsemathology.org/longa/research/MacKay/analysis/yarmouthFAT/YarmouthAll.lsp in this lisp file]

* Steve
** was a free agent!

== The Readings ==
 
* [http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/06/19/059808 Zika epidemic fueled by climate variations on multiple timescales]
** Note the focus on climate impact on the '''vectors''', from
*** temperature
*** precipitation
** and the time series analysis....
** [http://www.norsemathology.org/longa/research/MacKay/Associated/059808.full.pdf highlighted version]

== Moving forward ==

* Our abstract: 
** Global climate change – its causes and consequences – is arguably humanity's greatest challenge today. Global climate data permits us to understand how the Earth has changed and is changing; models based on data permit us to predict how the Earth will change. Both missions are critical. 
** Starting from an amazing and largely unexplored data set of phenological (seasonal) changes in Nova Scotia (dating from 1901 to 1923), we will search for signals of early climate change; then we will extrapolate, to explore how we can predict climate impacts such as the spread of the Zika virus inside its mosquito host.
* Timeline:
** May 7th -June, 2016: software and MacKay data preparation and exploration;
** June-July, 2016: data visualization and statistical analysis;
** July-August, 2016: phenochron and climate signal exploration and detection;

* Change in administration, to the department. Have we exhausted the summer funds?

== In the News ==

* [http://fusion.net/story/336452/alaskan-town-votes-on-relocating-because-of-climate-change/ Vote of a lifetime: Alaskan town decides whether to stay or go in face of climate change]:  “What’s special about Shishmaref is that we’re all family,” said Esau Sinnok, an 18-year-old climate activist from Shishmaref, a native village in western Alaska that might have to relocate because of climate change.
** Update: [http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/08/18/490519540/threatened-by-rising-seas-an-alaskan-village-decides-to-relocate Threatened By Rising Seas, Alaska Village Decides To Relocate]
* [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/08/coral-bleaching-video-algae-warming-oceans-environment-science/ Watch Terrifying Video of Coral Convulsing as Seas Heat Up]:  For the first time, time-lapse footage reveals the nightmarish horror of the heat-induced behavior known as bleaching.
* [http://www.climatecentral.org/news/scientists-tease-out-climate-role-zika-spread-20582 Scientists Tease Out Climate Change’s Role in Zika Spread]:  The Zika virus has exploded throughout South America, up through Mexico and Puerto Rico and into Florida, but the conditions it needed to fester in northern Brazil were rooted in urbanization and poverty. The initial Brazilian outbreak appears to have been aided by a drought driven by El Niño, and by higher temperatures caused by longer-term weather cycles and by rising levels of greenhouse gas pollution.

== Todo for next week ==

* Andy
** Figure out how to administer the grant funds going forward
** Continue on ST modelling efforts

* Madison
** Keep working on the GIS angle, and data
 
* Laura
** try regressions on the rotated lat/long. What angle to use?

* Steve
** Get the room for Thursday

== Next meeting ==
Thursday, 8/25, 3:15

== Sandbox ==
Return to Mackay Minutes 2016/08/18.
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