Mackay Minutes 2016/07/28

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MacKay website, and minutes

Contents

How did we do on our todo list?

  • Andy
    • Comments on the regressions:
      • longitude as a surrogate for latitude -- possible impact of winds?
      • using indicators (as we look at Laura's picture from Stewart, below: we can add an indicator to model being on the Atlantic versus the Bay of Fundy, for example)
    • More comments on the SVD and PCA
    • Apple and ST -- Soil temperature (ST, estimate) is in blue, atmospheric temperature (AT) in red
      • We need to carry out the modeling of ST using all species simultaneously. The parameters obtained may/will then prove useful in deducing things about first appearance time (FAT).
      • A look back at Mayflower (from 7/7): and comparison with AT
  • Madison
    • Look into vegetation, soil, and ocean currents around Nova Scotia
    • Find the numbers, if possible, for the different regions which will be combined in the final data set. We want to combine 6a and 6b, and also regions 9 and 10. Then we'll create weighted averages, to get a single consistent picture across the years.
    • Lead a discussion of Archer, chapter 4 (in three weeks)?
  • Steve
    • In Japan until the end of July

The Readings

This week we are looking at

Last week we were looking at

I found an on-line textbook that might be useful. I've not looked into it very far, but here it is: http://www.climate.be/textbook/index.html I needed to understand "meridional heat transport" from the Charney report, and found help in this textbook: http://www.climate.be/textbook/glossary_m.xml#meridional

Charney discusses the role of the oceans in transporting heat poleward (meridional heat transport, p. 10). We're concerned about the impact of ocean currents on moderating the climate at the coasts.

I just learned in my readings on greenhouses that the blue light inspires growth, while the red light inspires flowering here's a citation, but not the one from my book -- I hate it when I discover something in reading but forget to note where I found it!:). So we have to be sensitive to these biological factors that might impact when a plant appears or flowers. The composition of the atmosphere changes the colors of the light passed through. In fact, this could well be a very important effect of changing cloud composition, which, as you may have noted in Charney, is not well-understood (or at least wasn't in 1979).

Simple models suggest that CO2 will soon double over historical levels (roughly 270 ppm): see my RClimate page, for some examples.

Moving forward

  • Climate and first appearance: what is our model?
    • Do atmospheric temp and precipitation constitute "climate"? How about ocean currents?
    • Soil temperature as a function of climate -- we've got a model to start with (Chang, et al.).
  • Can we use the rank one/two/three versions of our five favorite species, to reduce noise? We create one new variable from the top five, and follow it through time and space....
    • Some comments on singular vectors -- they're not necessarily stable!

In the News

  • Crisis on high: At the top of the world a climate disaster is unfolding that will impact the lives of more than 1 billion people.
    • Deep in the Himalayas sits a remote research station that is tracking an alarming trend in climate change, with implications that could disrupt the lives of more than 1 billion people and pitch the most populated region of the world into chaos. The station lies in the heart of a region called the Third Pole, an area that contains the largest area of frozen water outside of the North Pole and South Pole.
    • Professor Qin has been in charge of the Tiger Valley station since 2005. He says the team's research shows the glacier melt is happening much faster than anticipated. In Tiger Valley the melt is fast, furious and constant: water just keeps pouring out of the 10-kilometre glacier. The work can be dangerous for Professor Qin and his team. As the melt hollows out the glacier from the inside, collapses are almost a daily occurrence. Professor Qin has found the rate of melting has almost doubled in the past decade. "Based on the figures from 1960 to 2005, in that 45 years, it only retreated by 260 metres. But in [the most] recent 10 years it retreated by 140 metres," he says. "The speed compared to the previous period has nearly doubled."
  • WMO: Global Warming Happening Faster Than Predicted : David Carlson, director of the WMO’s World Climate Research Program, told VOA global warming is happening faster than predicted. “This year suggests that the planet can warm up faster than we expected on a much shorter time. We would have thought that it would take several years to see a jump like this,” he said. Scientists based their assessment of the rapidly changing climate on three main indicators.The first is the record-setting global temperatures, which, for the first six months of this year, averaged 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial era levels.

Todo for next week

  • Andy
  • Laura
    • Lead a discussion of Archer, chapter 3 (in two weeks)?
  • Madison
    • Will be out Thursday next.
  • Steve
    • Back next week?

Recipe of the Week

Next meeting

Thursday, 8/11, noon?

Sandbox

Madison's GIS files for Nova Scotia

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