MacKayProjectDocuments

MacKay Modeling Group

Some of the documents we have considered during this project:

Alexander H. MacKay

Biographies and background:

• Alexander H. MacKay: Social and Educational Reformer (N. M. Sheehan. In Profiles of Canadian Educators, Patterson, R., J. Chalmers, and J. Priesen. 1974. D. C. Heath, Canada (first page of introduction, and notes)
• The Canadian men and women of the time : a handbook of Canadian biography of living characters... -- by Morgan, Henry J. (Henry James), 1842-1913
  • pdf
• Who's who
• Who's who
• Who's who, 1922

The Canada School Journal can be had, for 1877-1886, from

• this source for $10 (per month, but it should only take us a month to get all the copies!:). We can also figure out when MacKay published, and just get those issues...

MacKay's Legacy

Citizen science can be real benefit, CBU researcher says

MacKay studies:

• Organic Silicaceous Remains in the Lake Deposits of Nova Scotia. The Canadian Record of Science 1884-85, Volume 1, Page 248
• Notes on the Freshwater sponges of Nova Scotia (circa 1885)
• New Fresh-Water Sponges from Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. (1886)
• Marine Algae of New Brunswick (1887)
• Bulletin of the Natural History Society, 1887 (the early work of Alexander MacKay, on Marine Algae)
• Three great reforms-how may we hasten them? by MacKay, A. H. (Alexander Howard), 1848-1929 (1895) -- on spelling, writing, and weights and measures (and the metric system).
• Dendrites and Batrachians and Reptiles of Nova Scotia, 1895-1896
• A Freshwater Sponge from Sable Island, From the transactions of the Nova Scotia Institute of Science, Vol X, Session 1899-1900.
• Fungi of Nova Scotia -- a Provisional List (1902)
• Bibliography of Canadian Botany for 1904
• Bibliography of Canadian Botany for 1904
• Report of the Botanical Club of Canada for 1904-1905
• Botanical Notes in Nova Scotia -- 1905
• The course of study, how it is to be understood and utilized. Opening address, by the President MacKay, A. H. (Alexander Howard), 1848-1929. (Circa 1905 -- data through 1904 presented)
• Water-Rolled Weed-Balls (1906)
• Fungi of Nova Scotia -- First Supplementary List (1907)
• Diatoms of Nova Scotia: Collected by Alexander Howard MacKay, and determined, distributed, and lists published by J. Tempere and H. and M. Peragalo, Paris, France, 1907-1915. (1922) (source)

Phenology and Citizen Science

The Phenological Story of Alexander H. MacKay

1. Proceedings of the Nova Scotian Institute of Science (1863 to present!)
2. Another source of Proceedings
3. Description of MacKay's Phenological work, 1900 or so
4. Description of MacKay's early work, 1900 or so
5. MacKay describes his work in the Canadian Record of Science, 1899

Yearly Summary Phenological Reports

• Author index of MacKay from the Proceedings
• Natural History Observations, 1892
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1893
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1894
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1895
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1896
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1897
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1898
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1899
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1900
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1901
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1902 (another source here)
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1903
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1904 (the same -- in theory -- but in the Botanical report: Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1904)
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1905
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1906-1907
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1908
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1909
  • Dissolution of the Botanical Club of Canada
  • Description of the Phenochrons of Nova Scotia
  • cxx has the final report of the Botanical Club of Canada by MacKay, along with the 1908 and 1909 phenological results.
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1910
  • Check out page 88 of the document to see some interesting changes explained in 1910.
  • Page 1046 of the pdf has a couple of references you can try to track down for the 1910 results. Laura had a reference to the Journal of Education, but I can't find it....
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1911 (source, 1911)
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1912 (source, 1912
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1913 (source, 1913)
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1914
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1915
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1916
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1917
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1918
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1919
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1920
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1921

• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1922
• Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1923

• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1922
• The Phenology of Nova Scotia, 1923

Journal of Education

• April 1901
• April 1902
  • this one details the forms teachers used and the problems encountered by the data compilers (two different articles, pages 25 or so and 59 or so)
• April 1903
• April 1904
• April 1905
• April 1906
• April 1907
• April 1908
• April 1909
• April 1910: NOTE: change 0f dates for mhe phenological schedules (also in 1911 JOE)
• April 1911
• April 1912
• April 1913
• April 1914
• April 1915
• April 1916
• April 1917
• April 1918
• April 1919
• April 1920

Air and Soil Temperature Articles

File:C002p183.pdf

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Objectives

• Develop a general methodology for estimation of daily soil temperature at continental scales using daily air temperature and precipitation data for bare ground.
• Demonstrate how the predictions of soil temperature would effect annual soil respiration assuming different $Q_{10}$ values.
• Simulate temperature under vegetation based on leaf area index (LAI)

Background

• Air temperature correlates well with soil temperature
• A depth of 10cm was used for soil temperatures because most soil ecosystem processes occur within the top layers of soil.
• Weather stations normally measure in places with no vegetation therefore the model was created to estimate soil temperature for bare ground.
• Lag time exists between air and soil temperatures. (4h for minimum temperatures and 6h for maximum temperatures)
• If snow is present the relationship between air and soil temperatures will be different from those without snow. (This is due to snow insulation)

Model Description

• The model calculates 1-dimensional snowpack according to air temperature and precipitation data. The snowpack increases when the daily mean air temperature is below or equal to ${0}^{\circ }C$ and decreases or disappears whenever the mean air temperature is below ${0}^{\circ }C$
• The rate of change in soil temperature will be less do to snow's low thermal diffusivity and high albedo.

Equation 1: $F(J)=[A(J)-A(J-1)]M_{1}+E(J-1)$, where $M_{1}=0.1$(used when snowpack is present) Equation 2: $F(J)=[A(J)-A(J-1)]M_{2}+E(J)$, where $M_{2}=0.25$( (used when no snowpack is present)

• The rate scalers $M_{1}$ and $M_{2}$, were selected initially from regressions of the running average of air temperature and the observed soil temperature for each site. (except Alaska)

Prediction of soil temperature under vegetation

• Experimental studies have shown that vegetation canopies can lower soil temperature during growing season significantly and reduce mean annual soil temperature.
• According to Beer-Lambert law, the fraction of radiation transmitted through a canopy is equal to $e^{-K(LAI)}$ where K is the extinction coefficient and LAI is the 1-sided leaf area index.

Equation 3 is used for simulating soil temperatures under vegetation cover when $A(J)>T(J-1)$: $T(J)=T(J-1)+[A(J)-T(J-1)](M_{2})(exp^{-K(LAI)})$ where T(J) and T(J-1) are the mean soil temperatures under vegetation for current and previous day respectively.

When $A(J)\leq T(J-1)$ equation 4: $T(J)=T(J-1)+[A(J)-T(J-1)](M_{2})$

Sites used for model development

• Milton, Florida: humid, warm-summer climate
• Corvallis, Oregon: maritime, cool-summer site with little to no snow
• Chatham Experimental Farm. Michigan: a humid-continental, cool-summer site with a long period of snow cover
• Jackson Experimental Station, Tennessee: humid, warm-summer site
• Branch Station, Montana: a cold and dry site
• Old Edgerton, Alaska: a subarctic site
• Safford, Arizona: a subtropical desert site

Estimation of annual soil respiration

• It has long been recognized that soil respiration rate increases exponentially with temperatures respiration increases exponentially with temperature; respiration increases about 2.4 times for a 10 degree C increase in temperature ($Q_{10}=2.4$)
• If the specific rate does not change over the year, then predicted relative annual soil respiration is calculated from the temperature function alone: $Y_{m}=\sum exp[X(F(J))]$ where F(J) is the predicted soil temperature on Julian day J and X is 0.07, 0.09, 0.11 for $Q_{10}$'s of 2.0, 2.4, or 3.0. $Y_{m}$ (unitless) is calculated by

$Y_{m}=\sum exp[X(G(j))]$ where G(J) is daily measured soil temperature for each of the 7 model development sites.

• $\%_{error}=(Y_{p}-Y_{m})/Y_{m}(100\%)$

Results and Discussion

• With the exception of Oregon (due to its maritime climate), the absolute value of the regression intercepts increased with the increase in latitude, perhaps because the sites located in higher latitude usually have greater variability of air and soil temperatures.
• Values of $R^{2}$ ranged from 0.85 to 0.96 and the standard error of estimates ranged from 1.5 to 2.9 degrees C.
• Daily soil temperatures at 10cm depth for various sites and years may be predicted from daily air temperature, once equations have been established for different climatic regions.

File:JournalOfHydrometeorology.pdf

Koster, R, & Walker, G 2015, 'Interactive Vegetation Phenology, Soil Moisture, and Monthly Temperature Forecasts', Journal Of Hydrometeorology, 16, 4, pp. 1456-1465, Academic Search Complete, EBSCOhost, viewed 8 June 2016.

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Things to consider for the model

• Snow Cover
• Precipitation
• Altitude
• Vegetation Coverage
• Type of Climate
• GeoNOVA is the Province of Nova Scotia's gateway to geographic information about Nova Scotia

Climate Change:

• Adam Fenech describes how Banff, Alberta, is changing
• Adapting to a Changing Climate in Nova Scotia: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Options
• Nova Scotia's Climate

Phenology

• Monitoring of Spring Flower Phenology in Nova Scotia: Comparison over the last century, Liette Vasseur, et al

Climate Data

• Canadian Temperature data
• Environment Canada's Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD)
  • Adjusted Precipitation Data Access
  • winds
  • pressure
  • temperature

Related Studies:

• Moriz, Craig Moritz, James L. Patton, Chris J. Conroy, Juan L. Parra, Gary C. White, Steven R. Beissinger. 2008. Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science 322, 261 (2008); DOI: 10.1126/science.1163428.
  • Notes on Moritz study
• A. D. Cliff and J. K. Ord. 1975. Model Building and the Analysis of Spatial Pattern in Human Geography Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), Vol. 37, No. 3 (1975), pp. 297-348.
• Monitoring of Spring Flower Phenology in Nova Scotia: Comparison over the Last Century, Liette Vasseur, et al. source
• Science in Canada, 1895
• Climate and Climate-related Trends and Projections for Canada
• Data for Nova Scotia
• Teresa Devor has done some interesting climate work -- I've requested her master's thesis, and a 2014 publication mentioned in this website.

Searches

• Alexander Howard MacKay on Google
• Proceedings of the transactions...."
• Proceedings (alternative)

Grant Proposals:

• Collaborative Faculty/Student Project, 2015-2016, Final Proposal
• Email from Judy about the CSFPA Grant