# Mackay Minutes 2016/09/22

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MacKay website, and minutes

## How did we do on our todo list?

- All:

- Andy:
- Continue with TSVD analysis
- Anything weird about regions 1 or 2, year 22? It popped up as an unexpected rank-one tensor in the TSVD
- Check out March and #2 in MonthTempsParrsboro-n-TSVDyears.png
- Related, I gave Laura a quiz

- Prepare and submit abstract for MAA talk
- Get vector components to Laura for regression analysis
- NatureWatch Plantwatch data, modern

- Continue with TSVD analysis

- Madison:
- Keep working the GIS component
- Take care of checking data for errors
- Look for errors in 1915

- Laura:
- Perform regressions on TSVD vectors
- Get early spring averages and try a regression on the yearly component

- Steve:
- will look into how to animate the FAT and the model predictions in R

## The Readings

- The Climate of Nova Scotia (from The Climate of Canada).
- REFLECTIONS ON TIME AND PLACE: THE NOVA SCOTIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE IN ITS FIRST 150 YEARS: SUZANNE ZELLER -- great perspectives on MacKay and phenology
- Phyto-Phenology in its Application to the Plants of the Philadelphia Neighborhood -- describes the value of the MacKay project -- starting p. 313, but mentioned earlier as well. Also scientific results about meteorological variables and their impact upon plant growth.
- BOTANICAL BIBLIOGRAPHIES: Climate Change Effects on Arctic Plant species
- Arctic Sea Ice Back to 1850: has a picture of Newfoundland ice that may be relevant....

## Moving forward

- Poster Session Deadline approaches in October...
- Talk for the MAA:

Pioneering Climate Science and Data Analysis: the work of Alexander MacKay (1848-1929)

in the category of

Interdisciplinary Topics in Mathematics (Statistics, linear algebra, GIS, Botany, climate science)

in the contributed papers section.

Our objective would be to

- Describe MacKay as a brilliant quantitative scientist, and his citizen science project (Andy)
- Describe the summary data, and how we found it; associated data (e.g. climatological data); and problems we encountered, how we solved them, etc. (Madison)
- Describe climate-related discoveries so far (Laura).

http://jointmathematicsmeetings.org/meetings/national/jmm2017/2180_maacall

## In the News

## Todo for next week

- All:

- Andy:
- Continue with TSVD analysis
- Put the preliminaries in our report

- Redo analyses generally, once I have the final data set. Need to
- Impute some values, possibly
- Redo the tensor decomposition
- Laura will need to redo the regressions

- Get snow and ice records from Brian Hill
- Summarize relevant background readings, and add to the report.

- Continue with TSVD analysis

- Madison:
- Finalize the data set with Laura
- Make some choropleth maps of Nova Scotia
- Add the regression line from Laura to the map of Nova Scotia.

- Laura:
- Finalize the data set with Laura
- Get the equation of the regression line for Madison. Maybe just give some coordinates, and Madison can add a line segment along both axes, centered on Nova Scotia

- Steve:
- Will work on doing the animated maps of the data, using shapefiles supplied by Madison

## Next meeting

Skipping a week, due to L&M's activities.... Next meeting, Thursday, 10/06, 3:00