Mackay Minutes 2016/09/08

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MacKay website, and minutes

How did we do on our todo list?

  • All: Please read Teresa's article for next time (everyone should have received an email).
    • While the overall trend in average annual temperatures was towards warming between 1873 and 1930, cold conditions continued on a sporadic basis throughout the period – including several remarkably severe winter seasons between 1874 and the late 1890s as well as between 1904 and 1925.
    • Annual temperatures in Charlottetown, Halifax, and St. John’s trended upward between the early 1870s and c. 1930. Analyses of growing season temperature trends for the same period, however, reveal that Charlottetown was the only location at which the growing season warmed. Analyses also illuminate a high degree of variability in growing season temperatures from year to year and across the decades – from between 2.48° C in Halifax to 3.98° C in St. John’s. Growing seasons in Halifax and St. John’s cooled between 1870 and around 1930, perhaps in relation to the specific phases of the AMO and the NAO – the coupled ocean-atmospheric circulation systems that appear to have a degree of influence on the climates of all three cities.
  • Andy
    • continues to focus on historical issues, which should be reflected in the intro to the paper.
    • more on the SVD next time, and the TSVD.
  • Madison
    • will continue working on the small multiples
    • will continue working on GIS data acquisition
  • Laura
    • will continue pursuing the non-linear regression stuff, and seek help if needed.
    • Andy also gave Laura a graphic to examine, to explain meteorologically, if possible....
  • Steve
    • Steve will look up deadlines for posters, etc., at the Joint Meetings
    • Steve offered to help Madison with stripping values out of a csv file.
  • No new readings.

Moving forward

  • Poster Session Deadline approaches in October...
  • Talk for the MAA:

Pioneering Climate Science and Data Analysis: the work of Alexander MacKay (1848-1929)

in the category of

Interdisciplinary Topics in Mathematics (Statistics, linear algebra, GIS, Botany, climate science)

in the contributed papers section.

Our objective would be to

  1. Describe MacKay as a brilliant quantitative scientist, and his citizen science project (Andy)
  2. Describe the summary data, and how we found it; associated data (e.g. climatological data); and problems we encountered, how we solved them, etc. (Madison)
  3. Describe climate-related discoveries so far (Laura).

http://jointmathematicsmeetings.org/meetings/national/jmm2017/2180_maacall

In the News

  • Good news: Melting Arctic ice a boon for humpback, minke whales: The Arctic ice melt is creating a "new normal" in the far northern marine ecosystem that has created conditions for a whale population boom.
  • Bad news: Why climate change poses a fatal risk for lizards: Previous studies may have underestimated the risk of climate change to lizards. A 2010 study showed that 20 percent of lizard species would likely be extinct by 2080. Now the researchers say it may be much worse.
  • How Climate Change Could Jam The World's Ocean Circulation: Scientists are closely monitoring a key current in the North Atlantic to see if rising sea temperatures and increased freshwater from melting ice are altering the “ocean conveyor belt” — a vast oceanic stream that plays a major role in the global climate system.
  • Obama on Climate Change: The Trends Are ‘Terrifying’: "Climate change, Mr. Obama often says, is the greatest long-term threat facing the world"
    • “What makes climate change difficult is that it is not an instantaneous catastrophic event,” he said. “It’s a slow-moving issue that, on a day-to-day basis, people don’t experience and don’t see.” Climate change, Mr. Obama often says, is the greatest long-term threat facing the world, as well as a danger already manifesting itself as droughts, storms, heat waves and flooding.

Todo for next week

  • All:
  • Andy:
    • I'll get Laura the values of the vectors in the tensor outer product, so that she can check for lat/long regression of region vector, and meteorological regressions, if possible.
    • I'll look at 1907, 1917, and 1921, to see if there was anything exceptional in the MacKay reports (or elsewhere).
    • I'll be looking for more meteorological data from Teresa, and checking with her contact suggested in her last email.
  • Madison:
    • We need a graphic with the (nine) regions of Nova Scotia
    • Both Madison and Laura will be working on the abstract for the poster competition
    • Madison will check on the 1915 and 1920 data, to see why it appears that becoming common seems earlier than first appearance.
  • Laura:
    • check for lat/long regression of region vector, and meteorological regressions, if possible, of the yearly .
    • Both Madison and Laura will be working on the abstract for the poster competition
  • Steve: off the hook

Next meeting

Thursday, 9/15, 3:00

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