Mackay Minutes 2016/08/25

How did we do on our todo list?

Laura
- was going to be looking at regressions using a "tilted" axes of latitude and longitude.

Madison
- was going to be continuing her GIS work and research of currents, winds, soils, etc.
- incorporate latitude and longitude lines into maps
- Contact Thad

Andy
- Continued his modelling of ST. By streamlining the process, he was able to accelerate the convergence, and can't find any better minimum that the one found last time.
- Started polishing up the report, in so doing he discovered that he really should be reading more of what MacKay already did....
  - Phenological Observations in Nova Scotia and Canada, 1900
  - MacKay describes phenological work in Canada since 1890 in the Canadian Record of Science, 1899

Our abstract:
- Global climate change – its causes and consequences – is arguably humanity's greatest challenge today. Global climate data permits us to understand how the Earth has changed and is changing; models based on data permit us to predict how the Earth will change. Both missions are critical.
- Starting from an amazing and largely unexplored data set of phenological (seasonal) changes in Nova Scotia (dating from 1901 to 1923), we will search for signals of early climate change; then we will extrapolate, to explore how we can predict climate impacts such as the spread of the Zika virus inside its mosquito host.
Timeline:
- May 7th -June, 2016: software and MacKay data preparation and exploration;
- June-July, 2016: data visualization and statistical analysis;
- July-August, 2016: phenochron and climate signal exploration and detection;

Change in administration, to the department:
- Laura has been moved to the department
- Madison will burn up what's left of the grant money.

Vote of a lifetime: Alaskan town decides whether to stay or go in face of climate change: “What’s special about Shishmaref is that we’re all family,” said Esau Sinnok, an 18-year-old climate activist from Shishmaref, a native village in western Alaska that might have to relocate because of climate change.
- Update: Threatened By Rising Seas, Alaska Village Decides To Relocate
For Madison: The Saltmarsh Sparrow Is Creeping Dangerously Close to Extinction: The bird's survival hinges on the ocean, but rising waters and shrinking habitat are causing populations to plummet—with no clear solutions.
Human-induced climate change began earlier than previously thought: Signs of warming appear as early as 1830 say researchers, whose analysis will help build accurate baseline of temperature before influence of human activity

Andy
- Straighten out the SVD strategy; do we need to do a scaling that we haven't done?
- Continue tidying up the report. Finish intro, incorporating remarks from MacKay, then on to data compilation. I suggest that this be a paper about the summary data, not the Fenech data.

Laura
- will look into non-linear regression packages for R
- think about how to create a criterion for "best" regression angle.
- How is the angle obtained (whatever it is) sensible? Is it really the "main-axis" of Nova Scotia? Maybe we can plot "Nova Scotia" once it's been rotated....
- Document how the "final FAT data" was created.

Steve
- will check on deadlines for Joint Math Meeting abstract submissions/sessions.

Thursday, 9/1, 3:ish