Mackay Minutes 2016/07/21

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MacKay website, and minutes

How did we do on our todo list?

  • All (except Steve!)
    • Read Charney report and Fleming paper on Croll for next time.
  • Andy
    • Continue working on ST modeling, using additional species and locations (i.e. requiring more climate data from Laura)
  • Laura
    • Examine each individual singular vector for correlation with lat/long
  • Madison
    • Find out about ocean currents around Nova Scotia
    • Investigate the data sets where the 9th and 10th regions were combined. How do we deal with that across the years?
  • Steve
    • is in Japan, or on his way there! Hooray!

The Readings

For this week we're looking at

Today we might play "you meet a denier...." Let's recap how a rational person might talk to a person who doesn't believe that human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change is happening. One piece of ammunition which helps us make the case is the historical scientific record. What do we know? I have a beginning timeline. It could be improved, however. As we learn more, let's continue to update this. For example, I have nothing on Croll, although my reference to Milankovich is at about the time of James Croll.

What historical references and evidence might we give? Not that evidence and facts will change minds, by the way. But let us prepare to use them, nonetheless.

I found an on-line textbook that might be useful. I've not looked into it very far, but here it is: http://www.climate.be/textbook/index.html I needed to understand "meridional heat transport" from the Charney report, and found help in this textbook: http://www.climate.be/textbook/glossary_m.xml#meridional

Charney discusses the role of the oceans in transporting heat poleward (meridional heat transport, p. 10). We're concerned about the impact of ocean currents on moderating the climate at the coasts.

I just learned in my readings on greenhouses that the blue light inspires growth, while the red light inspires flowering here's a citation, but not the one from my book -- I hate it when I discover something in reading but forget to note where I found it!:). So we have to be sensitive to these biological factors that might impact when a plant appears or flowers. The composition of the atmosphere changes the colors of the light passed through. In fact, this could well be a very important effect of changing cloud composition, which, as you may have noted in Charney, is not well-understood (or at least wasn't in 1979).

Simple models suggest that CO2 will soon double over historical levels (roughly 270 ppm): see my RClimate page, for some examples.

Moving forward

  • Climate and first appearance: what is our model?
    • Do atmospheric temp and precipitation constitute "climate"? How about ocean currents?
    • Soil temperature as a function of climate -- we've got a model to start with (Chang, et al.).
  • Can we use the rank one/two/three versions of our five favorite species, to reduce noise? We create one new variable from the top five, and follow it through time and space....
    • Some comments on singular vectors -- they're not necessarily stable!

In the News

  • First Half of 2016 Blows Away Temp Records: http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2016GlobalAdjusted_Jan-Jun_20160719_720_492_s_c1_c_c.jpg
    • Every month this year has been record warm globally. Several months early in the year were among the first ever recorded to exceed 1°C (1.8°F) above average according to both NASA and NOAA. All six months of the year so far exceeded that remarkable benchmark when compared to preindustrial temperatures.
    • With June’s record heat, the year-to-date is 1.89°F (1.05°C) above the 20th century average, according to NOAA, and 1.96°F (1.09°C) above the 1951-1980 average according to NASA.
  • Greenland lost a staggering 1 trillion tons of ice in just four years: It’s the latest story in a long series of increasingly worrisome studies on ice loss in Greenland. Research already suggests that the ice sheet has lost at least 9 trillion tons of ice in the past century and that the rate of loss has increased over time. Climate scientists are keeping a close eye on the region because of its potentially huge contributions to future sea-level rise (around 20 feet if the whole thing were to melt) — not to mention the damage it’s already done. Ice loss from Greenland may have contributed as much as a full inch of sea-level rise in the last 100 years and up to 10 percent of all the sea-level rise that’s been documented since the 1990s.
  • Antarctic peninsula temperatures have fallen, study shows: Scientists said cooling of tip over past 15 years is related to wind patterns, but does not mean that global warming has stopped
    • Researchers analysed air temperature data from the area, which covers about 1% of the continent, and found it had warmed quickly from the 1920s until the late 1990s, as climate change drove up global temperatures. Since then, temperatures have fallen. The scientists said the change is related to local changes in wind patterns, partly driven by the recovery of the ozone hole. If carbon emissions continue to rise at the current rate, they expect temperatures on the peninsula to rise by several degrees by 2100.

Todo for next week

bibtex citation: @Inbook{Bony2013, author="Bony, Sandrine and Stevens, Bjorn and Held, Isaac H. and Mitchell, John F. and Dufresne, Jean-Louis and Emanuel, Kerry A. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Griffies, Stephen and Senior, Catherine", editor="Asrar, R. Ghassem and Hurrell, W. James", title="Carbon Dioxide and Climate: Perspectives on a Scientific Assessment", bookTitle="Climate Science for Serving Society: Research, Modeling and Prediction Priorities", year="2013", publisher="Springer Netherlands", address="Dordrecht", pages="391--413", isbn="978-94-007-6692-1", doi="10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_14", url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_14" } here's a local copy.

  • Andy
  • Laura
    • Lead a discussion of Archer, chapter 3 (in one weeks)?
  • Madison
    • Lead a discussion of Archer, chapter 4 (in two weeks)?
  • Steve
    • In Japan until the end of July

Recipe of the Week

Next meeting

Thursday, 7/28, noon?

Sandbox

Madison's GIS files for Nova Scotia