MacKay Minutes 2016/04/29

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  • I was able to get FileZilla to work at my house
  • ...But I can't figure out how to get the files from there to the wiki


Grant Admin


  1. The money is in the department.
  2. Paid every two weeks
  3. May end up reimbursing FICA withdrawn with each paycheck
  4. M-n-L need to fill out paperwork (eventually) -- see Suzanne for the details.

Ice Phenology

Looking into Ice Phenology. There was an interesting article in National Geographic, Japanese Monks Recorded the Climate for 700 Years that put me onto a few things, including this database of Ice Phenology.

I found a couple of papers, interesting papers, which I've put at The 2013 paper has an interesting graphic of how ice-breakup has been creeping northward, since the 1970s. Current rates of various phenomena are on the order of 2-3 days per decade.

The 2000 paper has historical rates of breakup, on the order of 5-6 days per hundred years. It will be interesting to see if we see changes on the same magnitude, which means that we could expect to see changes on the order of one day over the MacKay dataset!

Flowering Phenology

Shifts in flowering phenology reshape a subalpine plant community

Book/Course Situation

I'm missing one copy of Elizabeth Kolbert's book. Otherwise we're good. But someone should try to get Archer's book via Interlibrary loan... Takers?

I'm thinking that we'll take next week off, and then try to get assignments for week 1 done by lucky Friday the 13th of May, and have a meeting on that date. What do you think? Time?

Canadian Climate Info

To Do

  • Reset Steve's password
  • Create a public directory on mathstat to store things
  • Get Archer's book through the Interlibrary loan (Steve will do this)
  • Create a schedule for the first month
  1. First week: analyzing 1901 data.
  2. Second week: create process for tearing apart one data set, and looking for outliers, etc. Computing quantities, regressions, etc.
  3. Apply the strategy across the years
  4. Compare with summary data presented by MacKay
  5. Spend some time thinking about
    1. what we would expect to find
    2. how to combine all these different species,
    3. how to incorporate climate data, precipitation, ocean currents, etc.
  • Figure out when we want to meet

Strategies Discussed

  • Look at successive years and compare to find data that has problems
  • Look at schools individually from year to year
  • Construct a model the phenochrons
  • Classify species based on sensitivity, use to weight models
  • Look at both the raw data and the summary data
    • Can we figure out the samples used based on the summary data?
  • Compare two years to find potential problems for the whole data
  • Create procedure to analyze years